Bush decided to withdraws the

Bush decided to withdraws the U.S. from the ABM treaty saying that

"Today, the events of Sept. 11 made all too clear the greatest threats to both [i.e. US and Russia] our countries come not from each other or other big powers in the world but from terrorist attacks who strike without warning or rogue states who seek weapons of mass destruction."

I agree that, as 9/11 has shown, terrorist pose a greater threat than other countries, but does withdrawing from ABM makes sense. And do "the events of Sept. 11" make it more urgent? Well of course not, but whenever Bush wants to get anything passed or make some stupid move palatable he mutters his "Sept. 11/terrorist" mantra and everything is justified.

A missile defense shield will make zero difference in protecting the country from terrorists. What 9/11 has shows is that U.S. is much more vulnerable to low tech attacks. Hijacking airliners took box cutters. Mailing out anthrax (probably by domestic terrorists) took some basic lab equipment, nothing "high tech". Even if they were to develop a weapon of mass destruction, terrorists would be unlikely to be technically able to use a missile to deliver it to the U.S. (where would they be able to shoot it from?). It would be much easier to sneak it in "legitimately" on a container ship, or smuggle it into the country in a truck or boat and then deliver it to its final destination a la Timothy McVeigh. The missile defense shield is like installing a fancy and expensive security system for the upstairs window in a two story house while leaving the front door unlocked and wide open.

Even if you include "rogue states," whatever that means, a missile defense shied doesn't make sense. There are a few hostile countries that might develop the technology to deliver nuclear missiles to the U.S. they would never do it because of the retaliation the U.S. would take and for the reaction the rest of the world would have (militarily and economically.) Look at what happened to Afghanistan for "merely" harboring terrorists that killed "a few thousand" people (I'm trying to put things into perspective - not be callous). Iraq didn't fare much better and they didn't even attack any Americans.

From a technological point of view, I doubt that a missile shield would work within a decade (and look how the political world has changed in the last ten years). Right now, the missile tests are postponed whenever there are clouds because the tests would fail. I guess a rogue state would have to wait for nice weather and maybe notify the U.S. a couple of days in advance for the missile defense shield to stand any chance at all to intercept at least some of the incoming missiles. Yeah, right.

So what's going to be the effect of withdrawing from the ABM treaty? For Bush it means scoring browny points with the conservatives and he might score points with uninformed electorate. For me (a U.S. tax payer) it means my money thrown out the window. It's going to piss of U.S. allies around the world. It may cause Russia to withdraw from START treaties and China and Korea to build up their strategic missile programs.